Trade currency pair GBP / USD which has been going on this week (October 12 to 17) indicates the occurrence of a significant strengthening of sterling against the U.S. Dollar. After opening in the range of 1.5846 in early trading week, as a result of the closure of Sterling trade has risen sharply around 506 points or about 3.19% against the U.S. dollar and closed at 1.6352 range.
As for the trade in this week (October 19 to 24), normal range trading GBP / USD per week is expected to have a support level at 1.5906 and the range of resistance level at 1.6598 range.
Market participants expressed quite optimistic that the UK will soon be out of the recession in the third quarter. And estimated an emergency monetary policy in the form of asset purchase program can be delayed temporarily.
The movement of the currency pair is expected to be influenced by several economic data releases include are: Rightmove HPI m / m, Public Sector Net Borrowing, BOE Speak Gov. King, CBI Industrial Order Expectations, Retail Sales m / m, preliminary GDP q / q.
Senin, 19 Oktober 2009
Weekly Review Forex GBP/USD
Minggu, 18 Oktober 2009
Countries with the Biggest Economic Gaps
As we all know that the level of economic equality become a socioeconomic reality that happened many countries. This is what the basis for UNDP to conduct research on the countries assessed to have the largest gap of economic disparities in the world. In determining the assessment of the countries that enter into these categories, based on the consideration of the UNDP to measure the Gini coefficient. Where the coefficient of aggregate inequality is measured starting from zero up to a level based on the spread of economic inequality.
Hong Kong and Singapore First and Second Ranks
The sidelines of the number of appreciation for the economic growth in both countries, apparently did not fully deliver positive news. Based on data derived from the UNDP survey, Hong Kong is ranked first as the country has the world's largest economic gap. Gini coefficient values recorded by the survey at the level of 43.4 points. With the spread of income between the rich by 34.9 points and poor by 2 points. The high economic growth is reflected in developments in various sectors including real estate and exports become a mainstay of Hong Kong so far does not seem to be enjoyed by the people of Hong Kong. Problematic developed countries apparently being hit Hong Kong today.
The second country after Hong Kong which have the predicate as a country with the largest economic gap occupied by Singapore. One of countries have positive growth after a hit by the global economic crisis has recorded scores for the Gini coefficient of 42.5 points. Meanwhile, the poor distribution has a score of 1.9 and a score for the community with the economic level of the upper class or the rich having a score of 32.8. Results that have been surveyed by the UNDP berbading apparently negative economic growth of countries where trade is in the third quarter and an increase of 14.5%.
United States in the Third Rank
The world's largest industrialized nations the U.S. is apparently not lost on the rows into a country that has the largest gap of economic disparities in the world is USA. State led by Barrack Obama has recorded in the third sequence in which the Gini coefficient score of 40.8 points gained, with the spread between the poor is worth 1.9 points and the value for distribution of rich people have a value of 29.9. The position of the U.S. experienced worse when compared with the results of a survey conducted by UNDP in the last year, where the U.S. could be in position 5.
The impact of the economic crisis is predicted to continue until next year where it will surely affect the economy of middle-class people down a very Sanat hit and is also expected to further increase the quantity of poor people in the U.S..
Other industrialized nations belonging to the survey conducted by the UNDP is the United Kingdom that entered into the 7th position with a value of the Gini coefficient by 36 points. Gini coefficient values of poor people as much as 2.1 points was recorded, whereas for rich people as much as 28.5.
Other Asian countries into Japan this survey is located at position 27 with a score of 24.9 for the Gini coefficient points. Comparison of the Gini coefficient of poor people in Japan was recorded at 4.8 points, while the Gini coefficient for the rich people in Japan worth 21.7 points.
Minggu, 11 Oktober 2009
Weekly review GBP/USD - 11 October 2009
GBP/USD Signal Profit
I want to suggests that the pressure on sterling is expected to find support 1.5800an area. Technical possibility of defensive patterns of pair GBP / USD is greater if the support area can not be penetrated.
Letter BOE Inflation is estimated to provide a significant effect of pair GBP / USD at the next week. As for the trade in the next week (October 12 to 17), normal range trading GBP / USD per week is expected to have a support level at 1.5739 and the range of resistance level at 1.6034 range.
The movement of the currency pair on October 12 to 17 is expected to be influenced by several economic data releases include are: BRC Retail Sales Monitor y / y, RICS House Price Balance, RPI y / y, BOE Inflation Letter, claimant Change Count, and Average Earnings Index 3m / y .
Sabtu, 03 Oktober 2009
How to deal the unique type of boss
In the business world, the role of leader of a fair and wise is very important. Ideally, a wise leader who can maintain a balance between fulfilling the rights of employees, also can meet the demands of the company. However, in reality in many companies are still much less fully leaders serve as a good leader. Like what are the types of unique leadership in the company? How to deal with it?
The Trouble Maker
This type tend to be rough and a little drunk power. This bully, his heart to embarrass the team in front of others, such as clients or colleagues, just to show that he's higher position. Sometimes to show his prowess, he was pleased threatened to dismiss the men even though his errors small. Faced with this boss can be a difficult challenge. Tricks you can do is to try to "fly low", not too low profile, but try to get attention from employers that are higher than the intruder was. Find a mentor or a boss that is higher than the bully to maintain both a shield from the bully.
The Micro-Manager
This type of love analyzing every inch of the actions of the men, even the slightest. Actually the action of the employer may be encouraged to work harder, disciplined, and diligent. However, if you're the type of people who appreciate the freedom, will be difficult to accept. If you want to face this kind of boss, it is important to you is not seen to take the power of the employer. Usually the type of leadership is mikro-manager insecure type of person, it is very important to continue to give him information about your activities. By doing this, you give the illusion of a sort of control to the top without making you feel unable to move (you still have the freedom to autonomous).
The Politics of Office
This type of boss could be like your friends close, but it also can suddenly take such opposite positions, or even attacked. Things like do not keep their promises, false information, the takeover of ideas, are the usual things that happen when dealing with this kind of boss. The best way to deal with this boss is to communicate through writing. In this way, all words, questions, statements, requests, proposals, and everything is neatly recorded and there is proof. If your boss is trying to solve a verbal agreement, continue the confirmation by e-mail, make sure you send an e-mail copy to the other party in company.
The Senior
This type is usually more due to be promoted senior enough, not because of capability. This type of boss are usually less readily, always doing everything according to the old procedures, and less open to all efforts to innovate. Afraid to make decisions, because usually this type of boss has a problem to keep the moral subordinates, so they have a problem with flexibility. Usually, the type of boss who is less afraid of such initiatives will change, so do not be too underpreasure proposed ideas that are too fundamental. It would be better if you want to ask a fundamental change, make a big meeting if you need to get supporters.
Type Drama Queen
This type does not always refer to women, men too can be like this. In that sense, the type of person who likes to complain, making small problems become big, and make everything too much. Too self-seeking, and could see things from a larger glasses. They tend to reject the solution of the most visible, just to make the situation more complicated and longer. In fact, it rarely makes the company issues a private matter. Drama queen was never satisfied. Do not allow yourself to be manipulated and thinking about the boss of this type for too long, you could be sucked into the negative side. Very important to keep a positive mind and refer to the solution. As much as possible, away from the boss is like this, because you get too focused on the interest alone. But do not forget to keep a good relationship with him.
The Quiet
Typically, this type can make you confused with your position. They rarely give feedback and tends to establish an executive decision without informing the staff. As a result, the left hand never knew what was doing the right hand. Often occurs miscommunication and inequality. Faced with this kind of leadership type can be very frustrating, but it is important to keep your sanity. Usually this kind of boss do not realize their mistake, so do not be afraid to share your knowledge and to voice your opinion. It may be that you will enter into the circle of supervisors and make changes in the work environment.
It's difficult when we are in a working environment which is led by incompetent superiors. However, if you feel you can and have ideas for change, keep trying. Good luck!
Kamis, 24 September 2009
Measuring Risk with Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo simulations up to now regarded as the best simulation predicts the risk for its accuracy. How the origins of this simulation, the mechanism and its use in the financial world?
Origin Discovery
Credit invention Monte Carlo method is often given to Stanislaw Ulam, a Polish mathematician. Ulam is known as the man who designed the hydrogen bomb with Edward Teller in 1951. Meanwhile, he himself found the Monte Carlo method in 1946 while taking into account the probability of winning solitaire card game.
On the other hand, in the world of finance and financial mathematics, Monte Carlo method is very useful to do a valuation and analysis of the various instruments and portfolio investment. This method allows simulation of various factors that affect the value of uncertainty, so that then can determine the average value
Monte Carlo method was first introduced into the financial world by David B. Hertz in 1964, in the article "Risk Analysis in Capital Investment" in the Harvard Business Review. Furthermore, in the year 1977, Phelim Boyle is the first time using this simulation in the paper about Options.
Mechanism Simulation
Monte Carlo Mechanism Simulations are often used to predict a specific value, based on historical data collection. This method is one of many methods of trying to analyze uncertainty, where the objective is to determine how random variation, lack of knowledge, and errors, may affect the sensitivity, performance, or reliability of the modeled system.
This simulation is classified as a sampling method, because the input generated at random from the probability distribution, to simulate the sampling process of the actual population. Thus, here we are trying to choose the input distribution that best matches the data held. The data generated from this simulation and then presented as probability distributions (histograms) or converted to error bars, reliability prediction, tolerance zones, until the confidence interval.
The use of World Finance
Monte Carlo simulation is widely use in the financial world, especially in investment and investment instruments are complex and involve many factors. Here are some investments that uses Monte Carlo simulations:
• Evaluation Project, can be used to estimate the cost of the project and the Net Present Value of the project. In NPV account, for example, cash flow is a very big role, and have a high uncertainty, so that the simulation is very useful.
• stock option valuation, where the simulation generates thousands of possible price of the underlying stock, each of which is accompanied by exercises option value. Payoff is then direrata and discounted to the present, the current option value.
• Valuation of bonds, where the uncertainty is simulated interest rates. At every possible interest rate movements, then there are the estimated yield curve and bond prices are different. Valuation done by the average of these prices, then the present value.
• Quantifying the risk, such as Value At Risk, where the data is the portfolio data and historical market data, for measuring the risk of a portfolio.
Rabu, 16 September 2009
Why Starting business in Singapore?
Here is Top 3 reason why Singapore is a great place to set up your business.
1. A Favourable Business Climate
According to the Ministry of Trade & Industry (MTI), there is an estimated 6,000 Multi National Corporations (MNCs) in Singapore. Many of these MNCs have chosen Singapore as the prime location of their Asia Pacific headquarters due to its positive business climate. For example, the World Bank's Doing Business 2009 Report ranked Singapore as the world's easiest place to do business, ahead of New Zealand, United States and Singapore's closest competitor, Hong Kong. The EIU Country Forecast published in February 2008 also rated Singapore as having the best business environment in Asia Pacific and third in the world. These rankings by independent bodies are reflective of the Singapore Government's efforts in providing efficient public sector services that support the private sector growth.
2. Highly Educated Workforce
Singapore boasts one of the most educated workforces in the world. Literacy rate stands at a formidable 96%. 89.6% of resident non students aged 25-39 have secondary or higher qualifications. A further significant testament to the huge importance placed on education, the Singapore Government invested S$7,298.1 million in education in 2008. This comes up to 25.5% of total government operating expenditure, making education the second highest expenditure after security and defence. In addition, Singapore's two long established universities, the National University of Singapore (NUS) and Nanyang Technological University (NTU) also rank favourably on various university ranking surveys.
3. World Class Transportation System
Singapore's Changi International Airport has three heavily used terminals serving over 80 international airlines flying to more than 190 cities in 160 countries. Changi International Airport also handles more than 4,500 arrivals and departures weekly, 37.7 million passengers and 1.85million tonnes of air freight in 2008.
With the high cost of owning private transportation, public transportation is efficient, frequent and spans every far reaching corner of the island. Singaporeans flock to the 70 railway stations of the Singapore's Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system which has a daily ridership of 1.564 million. The two public bus companies with a fleet of 3,600 single and double decker air-conditioned buses transport nearly 3.12 million daily passenger trips safely to 295 routes islandwide.
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